Key Insights
- Regulatory continuity—Lula’s victory would ensure that the current government’s policy stays the same, though it is not certain.
- The uncertainty about the policy—Bolsonaro’s official platform doesn’t state whether he would be changing existing cryptocurrency policy.
- Market implications—The costs of licensing, the burden of transactions reporting and potential stablecoin taxes will continue to be major issues in the Brazil crypto market.
Brazil election results might affect how the country handles cryptocurrency policies. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is running against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro on October 4. This race is happening at a time when officials are making licensing rules stricter and requiring reports on transactions. Also how stablecoins are taxed has not been decided yet.
A final poll from Datafolha released on October 3 showed Lula with 45% of the votes and Bolsonaro with 42%. The poll included 4,006 voters from 122 cities. It shows that the race is very close before the round of voting.
Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court set the voting hours from 8 a.m. To 5 p.m. In Brasília time. A candidate needs, than half of the valid votes to win. If no one gets that the top two candidates will face each other again on October 25.
Beyond being a political process, the election has wider implications as Brazil is among the biggest cryptocurrency markets in the world. According to Chainalysis, the country is the top spot in their 2026 Global Crypto Adoption Index, with $252.5 billion estimated to be the value of crypto activity.
Lula’s regulatory framework faces further scrutiny
Lula’s administration has expanded oversight of cryptocurrency businesses through a series of Central Bank resolutions. Resolution BCB 520 established operating requirements for virtual-asset service providers, including governance, customer protection, internal controls and anti-money laundering procedures. The rules took effect on February 2.
Resolution 519 established the authorization framework for covered providers. Meanwhile, separate foreign-exchange rules brought certain international transfers involving virtual assets and fiat-referenced tokens under additional supervision.
Regulators introduced further reporting requirements shortly before the election. Resolution 588, published September 23, took effect October 1 and requires covered institutions to report qualifying transfers involving self-custody wallets to Brazil’s financial intelligence unit, Coaf.
The reporting threshold starts at $10,000 in virtual assets. However, the rule does not prohibit self-custody or establish a transaction ceiling.
Resolution 589 introduces another compliance deadline on November 6. From that date, regulated financial and payment institutions generally cannot facilitate virtual-asset operations involving unauthorized providers, subject to the rule’s exceptions.
These requirements could increase operating costs for cryptocurrency companies. Lemon, for example, plans to exit Brazil after determining that local licensing capital requirements made its operation too expensive.
Bolsonaro’s crypto position remains unclear
Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential platform does not include a plan for cryptocurrency. His official program talks about taxes, privatization, banking, the economy and rules changes. There is no specific idea about cryptocurrencies or stablecoins.
His platform supports a broader regulatory rollback. But it won’t directly say they will repeal the Central Bank’s crypto regulations. As a result, there would be uncertainty over whether the Bolsonaro government would keep, tweak or eliminate the existing regime.
Bolsonaro has also faced scrutiny over his past defense of individuals associated with Glaidson Acácio dos Santos, known as the Bitcoin Pharaoh. Brazilian authorities linked dos Santos to a cryptocurrency investment scheme that reportedly moved billions of dollars and affected numerous investors.
Reports say Bolsonaro asked for charges to be dropped against two former associates. A minister at Brazil’s Superior Court of Justice turned down that request. This moment adds some background but it doesn’t show what Bolsonaro truly thinks about regulating crypto.
The presidential program he filed is still the source to understand his actual views. It remains the document where people can see his policy direction.
Stablecoin taxes and adoption shape the outlook.
Taxation remains another question for Brazil’s cryptocurrency sector. Reuters reported in March that Finance Minister Dario Durigan planned to delay a public consultation on crypto taxation until after the election period.
The proposed consultation was expected to examine cryptocurrency flows, including stablecoin transactions. However, the government had not enacted a new tax arising from that consultation before postponing it.
Meanwhile, reporting obligations have advanced independently. DeCrypto was implemented by the Federal Revenue Service of Brazil, under Normative Instruction 2,291, and will start reporting transactions from July 2026. The framework is aligned with the OECD Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework.
Most of the activity reported involves stablecoins. In 2020, the volume of cryptocurrency transactions declared by them accounted for about 80% of all cryptocurrency transactions, while in 2019, the share was 3.5%, according to the Federal Revenue Service.
The adoption ranking by Chainalysis is another example of the size of the market. Brazil ranked 2nd in cross-chain flows, 3rd in service flows and 4th in peer to peer (p2p) on-chain balances. The firm’s methodology was used to gain the best overall rankings, which are achieved by its combined performance.
The next administration, then, will be facing some dilemmas. As the market expands, the regulators face the challenge of supervising it, and businesses need to deal with authorization fees, reporting requirements and possible tax adjustments.
Conclusion
The rules governing cryptocurrencies don’t change immediately after the elections, but the election in Brazil may decide how fast, and to what extent, they will be regulated. The continuity of the administration that brought the current system to the country would be maintained with a Lula win, while Bolsonaro is not as well-defined.
Next key regulatory deadlines are the authorization restrictions coming into effect on Nov. 6 and further supervisory measures in 2027. Changes to the tax laws of stablecoins will also ultimately be based on future government decisions.
